Wednesday, April 23, 2008

It's all over

Talking about my psychic-power; I reckon there is only one way to read last night's results from Pennsylvania ... Clinton has lost the Democratic nomination.

A 9.2% win, when she was +20 percentage points ahead a few weeks ago, is woefully inadequate in the chase to close the gap on Obama. At best, Clinton won an extra 20 delegates over Obama and he is still around 140 pledged-delegates in the lead. With only 9 contests to go, I haven't changed my mind and remain convinced its Obama V McCain.

I'm now sort-of resigned to the contest running through to June 3rd (and the last two Primaries) but hope that sense will prevail thereafter - only McCain can be enjoying the increasingly bitter (and ultimately pointless) battle between Obama and Clinton :-(


Jeff said...

I have to disagree. Particularly odd is that Obama can get hammered in a primary and you claim that this is the time that he will definitely win?

That Clinton can hold a 10% advantage over Obama in the face of some awesome Barack spending power says a lot for her.

She has won the states that are "key" when it comes to the real thing. Who wins Ohio and Florida wins the presidency? Well, Hillary did a better job than Obama in both.

Don't write her off just yet...

Andrew said...


Thanks for the comment - think we'll have to differ on this one :-(

Her lead was +20% just a few weeks ago in Pennsylvania ... Obama's spending DID have an impact and cut that to 9.2% on Tuesday. Clinton didn't HOLD on to a 10-point advantage - she LOST over 10-points in as many weeks.

She can't beat Obama on pledged-delegates ... it's just not possible ... and I think it would be pretty anti-Democratic (pun intended) if the Superdelegates overturn that result after the 3rd June and the end of the Primaries.